Let me start with what caught my eye in this week's deal flow. A pre-IPO fund I've been tracking quietly added two names to its portfolio that could not be more different on the surface: one is drilling electrodes into human cortex tissue, the other is writing the operating system for autonomous warfare. On paper, they seem like an odd couple. But strip away the surface narratives, and MSX's thesis is actually pointing at something profound about where AI is heading โ not just as a software layer, but as a force that is physically penetrating both our bodies and our battlefields. The question is whether the narrative is running ahead of the actual tech maturity.
I spent the last week digging through the regulatory filings and public technical disclosures on both companies. The source material was thin, which is common for pre-IPO analysis, but the patterns are clear. Neuralink is in that dangerous transition zone between proof-of-concept and production. They have completed three human implants, got the FDA breakthrough device designation, and recently launched the CONVOY trial to connect the N1 chip to a robotic arm. This is real progress โ the 1,024-channel flexible electrode arrays they are using are a genuine engineering leap over the old Utah arrays. But when I look at the scale, it's tiny. Three patients, one trial. The long-term data on electrode degradation, signal decay, and the body's immune response is simply not there yet. I have seen this pattern before in deep tech โ the gap between the demo that works in the lab and the product that survives the market is where a lot of startups get lost.
Anduril, on the other hand, is in a totally different phase of maturity. They are already at the scale of a serious defense contractor. The Lattice platform is a sophisticated AI operating system for sensors, decision-making, and autonomous responses, and it has moved from concept to real deployments. Their 2025 revenue is projected at around a billion dollars, a roughly 150% year-over-year jump, and they've closed major contracts with the Pentagon and allied governments. The acquisition of the 3D-printing drone company Callum for over a billion dollars in December also signals they are building vertical integration in manufacturing capacity, not just software play. But here's the catch I keep coming back to: their customer concentration is heavily weighted toward US government contracts. If geopolitical winds shift and defense budgets tighten, their revenue could face immediate pressure, and pre-IPO valuations don't always price that risk in.
The real investment story, though, is the framework of the combined portfolio. MSX isn't just buying two companies. They're buying the concept that AI's next frontier is defined by its most extreme physical applications: the human brain and the physical battlefield. This is the 'From Human Brain to Battlefield' narrative. It captures the imagination of LPs โ the appeal of AI as a transformative force beyond software, into our bodies and our security. From an investor's perspective, it makes a compelling story. But let's be honest about the valuation risk. Neuralink's current valuation is estimated somewhere between 80 and 100 billion, despite having effectively zero revenue. Anduril's valuation is around 14-28 times its revenue, which is actually more grounded, but it still relies on a future of continued defense contracts.
Now, let me bring in a perspective that often gets missed. I've spent years in the crypto community, where we talk about community as the ultimate security layer. In traditional finance, there's a similar concept โ it's called institutional trust. These two companies are operating at the extreme edge of what's politically and ethically acceptable. Neuralink's invasive approach carries huge ethical weight around autonomy, privacy, and what happens when a corporation has access to your raw neural data. Anduril's autonomous weapons, on the other hand, raise the question of human responsibility in kill chains. The debate around LAWS is not a fringe, academic concern anymore; it's a regulatory storm that could directly impact Anduril's business model. And if that happens, the pre-IPO exit window that MSX is banking on could narrow significantly.
So here is my core insight: the core value of both these companies is not technical. It's narrative. The tech is impressive, yes, but the real value is the story they tell about the future of AI. And the future of AI is not just about which algorithm is better, but about who owns the interface between the human and the machine, and who owns the interface between the machine and the state. Neuralink is building the interface of the human mind, and Anduril is building the interface of state power. They are both monopolies on access โ and that's why they're worth so much before they have a reliable track record.
When I look at my own community in the crypto space, I often say that community is the only chain that cannot be broken. But for these two companies, the chain of trust is not just between users and the platform โ it's between the public, the regulators, and the technology. That's a much more fragile chain. In crypto, we've learned that a token launch can happen overnight, but trust takes years. Neuralink and Anduril are building tech that's going to take years to prove, and they're doing it in an environment where every failure is magnified under the microscope of public fear.
There is a huge upside in this trade. If they pull it off, the payoff is enormous. But I'm more interested in the other side of the equation. In a market where the narrative is at its peak, we tend to forget that the underlying tech is still in its infancy. I think this is a good reminder that the crypto community often struggles with the same problem โ we overvalue the vision and undervalue the practical time to build. Whether it's a new layer 2 or a new AI chip, the timeline from whitepaper to production is always longer than the narrative suggests.
The next 24 to 36 months will be critical. Neuralink needs to scale from three patients to hundreds without a major safety event. Anduril needs to demonstrate that its Lattice platform can survive in a truly contested, complex combat environment, and it needs to diversify its customer base beyond the Pentagon. Both paths are steep, and both will be watched under intense public scrutiny.
So here is the question that sticks with me: are we investing in the technology, or are we investing in the narrative that technology will work? In this bull market, the narrative is winning. But it's worth asking whether that will hold once the first major setback hits. Because the real test is not in the boardroom pitch โ it's in the patient's recovery room, and in the heat of a battlefield operation. And that is a test that takes years to pass.